I’ve said before that I think on some level, gun control advocates like mass shootings. It might not be a conscious level, but it’s kind of hard to completely and totally hate something that provides your movement so many benefits.
In this day and age, the only way you’re going to get gun reform of any stripe is after a mass murder. The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act only passed because it was in the wake of Uvalde, for example.
And then there’s the fact that support for gun control tends to swing upward in the polls after these incidents.
Unsurprisingly, it happened again.
At least, that’s what the latest poll released by The Economist and YouGov shows. On Wednesday, the pair released a survey that found American adults backed universal background checks and “red flag” measures at a higher rate than the last time they asked about them.
82 percent of adults said they favor requiring background checks on all gun buyers, including those using private sales. That’s up two points from the last time YouGov asked the question in February 2023 but up nine points from when it asked in April 2022. Meanwhile, 73 percent backed allowing a court to “temporarily remove guns from people that are believed to pose a danger to themself or others,” an increase of four points from February 2023 and five points from January 2023.
The upswing in support for gun restrictions, as modest as it might be, could help Kamala Harris over Donald Trump since she has made universal background checks and “red flag” laws a consistent part of her platform. 84 percent of the respondents also said guns were an important issue in their vote, with 55 percent labeling it very important. However, the poll may indicate the Georgia shooting hasn’t significantly shifted the election. While 90 percent of respondents had heard about the shooting, only four percent of Americans listed guns as their most important issue–a one-point decrease from the previous poll. Overall, the poll put the two candidates in a dead heat at 45 percent support.
Additionally, the public’s opinion shifts weren’t consistent across different areas of gun policy. Not every gun restriction polled saw a jump in support.
54 percent said laws covering handgun sales should be made more strict. That represents no change from February 2023 but is up nine points from April 2022 despite support reaching a high of 58 percent in January 2023. Similarly, the number of people who felt new gun laws would have prevented mass shootings was unchanged from the previous poll, with a plurality saying no. There, too, support for the idea gun laws would have prevented any of the recent mass shootings was up from April 2022 but peaked back in January 2023.
There were some issues with the poll, though.
For example, they asked about banning “assault rifles.” Colloquially, AR-15s and similar firearms are termed assault weapons, not rifles. This may seem like a trivial detail, but some people know the definition of an assault rifle includes full-auto capability. These are completely different categories of firearms and could sway someone either direction with their answer. Even so, 59 percent favored a ban on these guns, according to the poll.
Now, the question is whether it will help Harris or not.
These results aren’t going to help Trump at all. That’s obvious, but is this a slam dunk for the Harris campaign?
Well, it might, actually.
See, one of the things a lot of polls overlook is the importance of the issue. In this case, they did, with 84 percent rated guns as important and 55 percent calling it very important.
That doesn’t necessarily mean that all of those folks are anti-gun, but most of those who aren’t are likely to be in the Republican camp, and only 76 percent of them rated guns as important, with at least some of those apparently favoring some degree of gun control.
The importance of an issue matters especially with independent voters who aren’t exactly playing politics as a team sport. They’re looking primarily at issues and making their determination based on that, and 81 percent of them think guns are important. Yes, some of those are pro-gun and they see opposing gun control as important, but based on the rest of the polling, we can figure those folks are the minority.
And that’s a problem.
Now, what remains to be seen is whether guns are more important than, say, the economy or illegal immigration to these voters. If it is, then they’re likely to vote based on that more than who favors gun control more. If gun control is more important then, well…
