If you’re a millennial like me, you probably spent some time with a controller in your hand, controlling a character named “Sonic the Hedgehog” on the SEGA Genesis. The side-scrolling game about a speedy blue hedgehog is still viewed favorably by many in my age group, and for good reason. It was incredibly fun. Back then, Sonic posed a threat to Nintendo’s Italian plumber, but despite ultimately losing that battle, Sonic is definitely winning the fight against an even bigger opponent, Mickey Mouse.
To be more accurate, the third installment in the Sonic the Hedgehog movie trilogy is absolutely trouncing Disney’s latest soulless cash grab in “Mufasa,” a prequel to its Lion King CGI remake that was just as mediocre, especially when you compare it to the animated classic of the 90s.
One of the more newsworthy parts about the success of “Sonic 3” is that it’s out-performing “Mufasa” despite Disney having used its power and pockets to try to edge Sonic out of theaters by brute force.
As That Park Place explains, Disney often deploys this strategy around the holiday season to give its films more real estate in theaters, making it a little more difficult to watch competing films:
Disney’s approach to holiday releases has long relied on securing the widest possible theater footprint. This strategy ensures that their films are accessible to the broadest audience, squeezing out competitors. Historically, this tactic has been highly effective:
- In 1999, Toy Story 2 dominated Thanksgiving weekend with a record-breaking release in 3,236 theaters, setting a precedent for Disney’s future holiday campaigns.
- More recently, Moana 2 debuted in a staggering 4,200 theaters during Thanksgiving 2024, grossing $221 million in five days and contributing to the highest-grossing Thanksgiving weekend on record.
Disney’s control over theater allocations not only boosts revenue but also limits the availability of screens for competing films, particularly during the lucrative holiday season.
This limits “Sonic 3” in many ways, and Disney isn’t going to let up according to That Park Place:
Currently showing in 3,769 locations, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 faces a bottleneck caused by contractual obligations many theaters have with Disney for Mufasa: The Lion King. While Sonic 3 has provided far more revenue per theaters, the total count of screens added for Sonic 3 from its first week to its second will be a staggering eight. Yes, eight additional screens in the entire nation! Disney’s agreements often stipulate extended runs in a high number of theaters, leaving little room for other blockbusters to increase their reach. Despite being the second-highest earner this season, Mufasa continues to occupy 4,100 locations, effectively stifling Sonic’s ability to capitalize on its box office momentum.
Over Christmas, “Mufasa” rebounded, earning $15 million, up from the paltry $7.1 million it earned on Christmas Eve according to The Wrap. This actually puts it up over “Sonic 3,” and experts say this trend will hold over the weekend, bringing its domestic total to $115 million.
But with the knowledge that Disney is using its muscle to take up theater real estate, this gain loses its impressiveness. Sonic 3 is doing a lot more with a lot less, garnering $10.3 million on Wednesday, giving it $88 million box office domestically, and it should reach $125-$130 million by Sunday.
My prediction? Disney often benefits from strong starts that end up dying quickly because the movies they deliver have a mediocrity problem. Given, “Mufasa” started weak and became strong, but from what I’m hearing from film reviewers I trust, “Sonic 3” is the stronger movie by far. I think Sonic will do what he does best, and pick up speed as word gets out that “Mufasa” is kind of a dud.
It will be interesting to see how the two movies arrive at the finish line, but I’m definitely rooting for the hedgehog.
